SPORT SLUDGE | 🗓 Games 🎯 Edge Board 📈 Movement 🏆 Experts vs Sludge 📡 Scoreboard 🏆 Leaders 📒 Receipts 🔬 Methodology

🎯 THE EDGE BOARD

Where the Sludge Line disagrees most with the market, right now. We devig the best book price, compare it to our results-only model, and rank by the gap. Bigger gap = bigger disagreement (▲ flags 5+ points). Two zones matter: the ⚡ SHARPEST ZONE is the 10–14 pt underdog cell the model has actually profited on, and the ⚠ FADE ZONE is the 15+ pt gaps where the model is usually WRONG — we still show those but no longer stake them. This is where we think the books are off — not betting advice, and the market is right more often than we are. Every number gets graded on the Receipts page; here's how the model is built.
SportGameSludge sideSludge%Market%Edge
MLB Athletics @ Texas Rangers
09-02 00:05 · pitching (auto) (Brady Basso 4.5 ERA vs MacKenzie Gore 4.4 ERA): -0.9
Athletics +161 52% 36% ▲17 pts
⚠ FADE ZONEnot staked — market usually right here
MLB Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
09-02 01:40 · pitching (auto) (Jesus Luzardo 3.09 ERA vs Eduardo Rodriguez 2.5 ERA): +0.8
Arizona Diamondbacks +118 60% 43% ▲16 pts
⚠ FADE ZONEnot staked — market usually right here
MLB St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
09-02 02:10 · pitching (auto) (Michael McGreevy 3.86 ERA vs Eric Lauer 4.78 ERA): -1.5
St. Louis Cardinals +141 52% 39% ▲13 pts
⚡ SHARPEST ZONE
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MLB San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
09-01 22:40 · pitching (auto) (Randy Vasquez 4.02 ERA vs Nick Lodolo 5.24 ERA): +1.1
Cincinnati Reds +113 57% 45% ▲13 pts
⚡ SHARPEST ZONE
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MLB Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
09-01 22:45 · pitching (auto) (AJ Smith-Shawver 5.93 ERA vs Jake Irvin 5.62 ERA): +0.7
Washington Nationals +142 49% 39% ▲10 pts
⚡ SHARPEST ZONE
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MLB Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians
09-01 22:40 · pitching (auto) (Spencer Arrighetti 4.81 ERA vs Gavin Williams 3.98 ERA): +0.3
Toronto Blue Jays +153 45% 37% ▲8 pts
MLB San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
09-01 22:40 · pitching (auto) (Logan Webb 3.72 ERA vs Paul Skenes 3.79 ERA): -0.4; injury (auto) (Konnor Griffin (out)): -0.2
San Francisco Giants +135 48% 40% ▲8 pts
MLB Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
09-01 23:40 · pitching (auto) (Robert Gasser 4.59 ERA vs Matthew Boyd 3.99 ERA): +0.4
Milwaukee Brewers +108 51% 46% ▲5 pts
MLB Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals
09-01 23:40 · pitching (auto) (Tyler Phillips 3.59 ERA vs Randy Dobnak 1.92 ERA): +0.8
Kansas City Royals -120 57% 52% ▲5 pts
MLB Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
09-01 23:40 · pitching (auto) (Troy Melton 1.86 ERA vs Andrew Morris 3.82 ERA): -0.7
Detroit Tigers -120 57% 52% 4 pts
MLB Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies
09-02 00:40 · pitching (auto) (Kyle Bradish 4.03 ERA vs Gabriel Hughes 6.61 ERA): -0.4
Baltimore Orioles -142 59% 57% 3 pts
MLB New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
09-02 01:38 · pitching (auto) (Gerrit Cole 3.19 ERA vs Grayson Rodriguez 6.03 ERA): -0.8; injury (auto) (Aaron Judge (out)): +0.5; injury (auto) (Cody Bellinger (out)): +0.2
New York Yankees -186 64% 63% 1 pts
MLB Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
09-01 22:45 · pitching (auto) (Bryan Woo 4.36 ERA vs Sonny Gray 2.82 ERA): -0.3
Seattle Mariners +104 47% 47% 1 pts
MLB New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays
09-01 22:40 · pitching (auto) (Sean Manaea 4.55 ERA vs Freddy Peralta 5.11 ERA): -0.3; injury (auto) (Juan Soto (out)): +0.3
New York Mets +109 46% 45% 1 pts
⚡ SHARPEST ZONE — a 10–14 pt gap on an underdog, the one cell the model has actually made money on. ⚠ FADE ZONE — a 15+ pt gap, where the model has historically been wrong and no longer stakes a play.

The Tail at DraftKings button is a paid partnership: we may earn a commission from sportsbook links — it never changes the model's number.

Updated continuously from live odds. 21+ · Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER · Analysis, not betting advice.